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Före detta hedgefondförvaltare, partner och VD på Futuris som utsågs till Årtiondets hedgefond i Europa för perioden 2000-2009
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Taking stock of the financial year of 2017 and adjusting my direction for 2018

Topic: my poor trading skills, and total tally for 2012-2017, as well as my plans for 2018

Length: short

Conclusion: I'll quit trading listed stocks (after a final handful of  +100%-ers)


Hubris

(see my post on Hubris here in the TAOS series)

Almost six years ago I opened a private trading account. I did it mainly to take advantage of the coming stock market crash. It never came, and as a result I lost 15.3 million SEK on my short Swedish stocks position (Nasdaq OMX S30 index) - almost 2m USD. This year I sold the last of that position, which means I can finally take stock of the position and tally the result.


Positive surprise

I thought I had barely made up for the losses on other positions, maybe falling short by as much as 5 million SEK or so, but when I finally found the tool for it today, it turned out I've made a positive total result of +1.8 million SEK on my trading account. That means my other positions have gained 17.1 million SEK over the same 5-6 year period. I should be embarrassed - not by the result but by my not knowing the result, and not caring.

Anyway, I've learned a handful things from this experience:

  • I don't care about financial losses (too little, since I haven't bothered to stop the losses or even to calculate the result)
  • I hardly care about gains (I like being proven right, but it's a very fleeting sensation - and a year later it's completely gone; I couldn't care less whether I have 2 million USD more or less in my bank account)
  • I'm not good at predicting the market or at trading
  • It's been a waste of time (except for these lessons)
  • The obvious conclusion is that I should (and will) stop trading listed stocks, and thus free up many quality hours for 2018

Other trading results: why did I make 2 measly dollars in profit on Hennes & Mauritz?

Some people may be interested to know that my life time result on Hennes & Mauritz is 22 SEK (about 2 dollars and 50 cents -- I made one single trade on September 20, 2016 in the stock); that I made half a million SEK in profits on Net Gaming Europe in 2017, and about as much on Gaming Innovation Group over the 2 years I've been active in the stock.

Some Swedes might be surprised to learn that if I add up my lifetime losses on Studsvik and Stockwik and add in my result on URA(nium), CF Industries (Thank you Jesse Felder [I think]), Xact Bull x2, BEAR x15, FING(erprint) and Finepart; that entire pile of dog excrement amounted to nil, zip, nothing but a waste of time.


Calling it quits - soon

Going into 2018, I only hold a few small listed positions in Stockwik, Finepart and Net Gaming Europe, plus a for-fun-position in BEAR x15 (i.e., a devil's instrument for being short the Swedish stock market with a leverage of 1500%). My plan is to get rid of all of them in the coming 12 months unless the market or any of the companies significantly changes character.

I think all positions are set up for 100% gains each in 2018. But, hey, who would listen to the guy who just admitted he lost a fortune on one single position going against the best bull market of a century?

Draghi said "Whatever it takes" back in 2012. Did I listen? Yes. Did I understand or believe him. Apparently not.

Look out for another year end report on the more important aspects of life in a few days.

Meanwhile, here is my pre-year end review for 2016, and the actual YER2016 and here is the one for 2105, and a bonus one that I wrote in May 2016. I'll use those as templates for my coming real Year End Review for 2017.

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