SpreZZaturian
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Före detta hedgefondförvaltare, partner och VD på Futuris som utsågs till Årtiondets hedgefond i Europa för perioden 2000-2009
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23 mars 2016

Practical step by step guide to get your career started in a meaningful direction

Looking for a job? Trying to decide on an education?

Below you'll find my most concrete and detailed guidance yet to a meaningful and effective education, for a rewarding and future-proof career.

Summary: contact a lot of start-ups and ask them, then study on-line whatever skills they are missing

Share this post. If you only share one single post on my site, this one should be it. Share it with your entire network. Make sure those guys who can't decide what to study, where to study, how to study etc. read it and apply the lessons in it.


There is no spoon

First you must realize your future is not as just another employee at a big firm.

And the path to where you are going probably isn't through 4-5 years of partying and time-wasting in formal education.

Then commence your quest to find the right place for you. Here are a few ideas to get you started:

  1. Find a directory of start-ups. In Sweden you could, e.g., start here, at SiSP, where you'll find 80 start-up areas with dozens or hundreds of associated start-ups each.
  2. Start with the area closest to you, e.g., this one, UIC.
  3. Call and visit all the companies on their list.
    1. UIC currently lists some 300 young companies and start-ups.
    2. Send e-mails directly to each company and start scheduling as many meetings you can.
    3. Treat the project like an essay or writing a book, not as job interviews.
      1. The goal is to map which companies there are,
      2. which industries and sub-sectors,
      3. which problems they are trying to solve and
      4. with which technologies, and not least,
      5. what skills they are looking for in potential employees or partners.
        1. Ask them outright if they would hire people without formal education and
        2. if skills are more important than diplomas.
        3. Do they test the skills of their employees or do they just check their grades?
  4. Keep going through companies on the list, until you find an industry or sub-sector that you find particularly interesting, or, alternatively, that is looking for people and find you interesting
  5. Make a summary of your findings. Do it in a way that you imagine could be interesting to start-ups in your chosen sub-sector -and send it to them. Identify how different start-ups could help each other, or how one company's methods could be used in another etc. What problems or solutions are they missing? If you find something like that, they'd hire you in a heartbeat.
  6. OK, maybe you're not ready to get a job, but now you have a clear view of challenges, available technologies and what skills and knowledge you would need to be able to contribute to those or similar companies in the future, after your "education". So, let's get that education:
  7. Ask around at forums like YCombinator on how best to acquire the skills you need. There you can find out even more about what skills are in demand and where to acquire those. E.g., ask whether it is best to study in a formal setting, or if there are online resources that are equally good or better.
  8. My guess is that Stanford, MIT, KTH, Linköping, Lund, Chalmers offer very interesting courses for free. And then there are of course CourseraKhan and Codecademy, not to mention YouTube in general if you know what you ant to learn. And here are 144 other on-line study resources. In addition never forget the importance of taking stuff apart and trying to put it back together again (with the help of YouTube)
  9. Study. That is, take what you found out in the points above, and either study on-line or combine it with some kind of formal education
  10. Stay in contact with the start-up scene. Keep meeting with new companies; IRL or over Skype if you or they prefer that. Keep identifying which problems are being solved and what skills the start-ups are looking for.
  11. Consider starting your own business, applying whatever skills you gain along the way during your chosen studies. Build websites. Repair electronics... It's the perfect way to broaden your network of industry contacts and potential partners.
    1. E.g., if you found out that a company needs Python programmers, start learning Python. Meanwhile, talk online in various programmer forums and find out what you can do with Python - perhaps control quadrotor robots or add features to Japanese robot toys. Start a business doing that to hone your skills as well as make some extra money.

 

I'll find you

 

And, so help me God, I'll find you and personally punish you, if you don't set up a website with your findings from all those interviews, and create a community of like-minded people, aggregating each other's information at one place.

 

Summary

Forgot where to start?

Find a start-up close to you. Call them or e-mail them and ask if you can visit them to see what they are working on, what their challenges are, what kind of skills they would need.

Then do one more.

Continue until you see the light and know what you want and need to learn. Then learn that - preferably fast, on-line, using and building a habit of doing deep work. While you're at it, maybe try to get paid for your skills along the way, by starting a simple business or doing extra work at the start-ups you of course keep calling and meeting

Share this post. If you only share one single post on my site, this one should be it. Share it with your entire network. Make sure those guys who can't decide what to study, where to study, how to study etc. read it and apply the lessons in it.

Taggar (blogg): 
20 mars 2016

An acid test for your career aspirations

Topic: Detailed career opportunities

Length: 2646 words

Executive summary: Almost every profession can be approached with the future-proof Big 5 human challenges and Big 5 singularity technologies in mind, and still be kind of fun and rewarding in itself. So, not just robotics. And, yes, still hating on finance :)

Remember to bookmark this site, sign up for my free newsletter, and read the first page of my free e-book (and more are coming). Not least, share this article to save at least one poor schmuck from a death by automation.


Show me the money!

11137918_667630853364906_1025128660_n

I've realised two things:

1) you don't care about happiness

and

2) you demand precise guidance for your education and career (as opposed to general "whatever makes your heart beat, or help humankind with robotics" type of advice)

 

Nobody cares about your schmakapalbhati breathing, grandpa

So, where does this realization come from all of a sudden? Well...

I get very few questions about, and reactions to, articles about financial investments, about pension savings, about the future of robotics, about fulfillment and happiness vs. fortune and fame. You know, the things I actually write about, the "know yourself", "lower the threshold to get started", "champagne spray parties aren't that fun" kind of posts.

What I do get is an endless stream of demand for career advice: "Should I study this or that?", "Should I work here or there?", "Should I focus on a traditional career or go it alone as an entrepreneur?", "Which industries should I target?", etc.

I thought I had already answered all of the above with:

  1. Skip (formal, traditional) school
  2. Just say no to finance
  3. Be an entrepreneur
  4. Solve the big 5 with the big 5
  5. Have fun no matter what you do

have fun

Done!

 

Robotics! How hard can it be?

When that, to my great surprise and deep disappointment, wasn't enough I specified:

Work with robotics (which I thought was self-explanatory)

That still didn't cut it, apparently, so I tried this:

Think of all the separate parts of a robot; legs, fingers, muscles, arms actuators, sensors, tools; or it's sub-systems; motion, balance, vision, smell, and figure out what part or system you think needs improvement.

Another line of attack could be visiting every local robotics company you can think of and connect the dots, i.e., identify which companies could benefit from each other without competing. Or, think about ways to combine several different solutions to, e.g., vision or balance, into the same robot.

I got nothing but glazed over eyes and open mouths from that (I know Japan is ahead in both fields that spring to mind, but I'm strictly talking robotics here. Then again, robots... never mind)

BB8

So, I tried being specific:

"Here are videos of bipedal robots, BB8-type of ball balancing robots (5 years before BB8), quadripeds (and more). And here are bipedal robots using gyroscopes for balance, and here are humanoids using fancy software algorithms choosing the optimal foot movement from an internal trial and error simulation of 100 different choices in a hundredth of a second. And here are quads learning from experience, and here are robots actually forecasting when they're about to be hit and (simulating and) bracing before impact."

Nothing. Except the occasional "you know a lot about robots".

I elaborated:

"And here are robots using sound (see round corners, measure distance), laser (distance), stereoscopic cameras (Kinect 3D), radar, x-rays, object databases (to recognize objects and forecast their texture, weight etc. beforehand), memory (gradually build a coherent 3D memory of the surroundings and add incoming/new objects from there), blueprints (it helps knowing the building rather than just looking and feeling)."

"Wow! They can see in so many ways"

or

"Yeah, yeah, schmobotics, but will I get rich more predictably in management consulting than in finance, albeit richer in the latter if I rise to the top?". "Should I take that job in the economy department of a hedge fund or stay as sales at a big investment bank?"

robot landing

No!

No, no, no! The proper reaction would have been: "Ah, but if we combined sound, laser, Kinect, blueprints, repositories and memory in the same robot, it would actually know exactly what it is dealing with. I wonder if it could catch a baseball if...", and "What if you built a quadriped that had balance balls for feet and very small such pressure sensitive balls for fingertips (great for gripping delicate things just enough not to let them slip)."

...

"Perhaps not on all feet or all fingertips. It could be equipped with a gyroscope as well... several..., and a simulation engine that dealt with sudden blows as well as predictable impacts (hello vision!). "I wonder what power source they are using?". "What kind of 'muscles' do they use? Pure mechanical spring systems might be better (already done though).". "What if it falls down or rolls over?"

"Hey, Sprezza! How come a bipedal robot isn't much better at managing stairs than humans? Why do they act as if every step is completely new to them? Shouldn't you be able to give it a hard kick in the back, and it should be ready long before impact, and either bracing enough (judging your weight and kick speed and power correctly) or having another plan for regaining its balance, as well as be able to catch a baseball at the same time? Why not do an impromptu somersault with in-air side-split before making a perfect superhero landing on the stairs?!"

Yeah, I guess I shouldn't hope for such a question, since monkeys are more likely to fly out of my ass long before that happens.

Ouch!

And we're still only talking about robotics, and in very crude and tangible respects. I haven't even updated the above thoughts in the last 5 years and still the kids don't get it. So, here's a slight update:

Add "cop" to the mix..., as in robocopters. There are multicopters everywhere now: quadcopters, hexacopters, octocopters etc. for filming, selfies, weaponry, inspection, search and rescue, even plans for commercial airliners. The Avengers live in a large octocopter since several years back.

So, now I can direct young people to Youtube videos of cars that can drive on vertical surfaces aided by copter fans, to swarms of small quads interacting, helping each other maneuver, accelerate, catch things, and soon, with your help, maybe showing emergent behavior as in Crichton's amazing (his best) novel "Prey".

Don't forget AlphaGo's amazing Go victories, and its future careers in health care, online poker, mining, global warming research etc. Or Alphabet's other robot ventures (through Boston Dynamics), not to mention all the slithering, swimming, crawling and flying things on display in various TED talks.

The reason I singled out robotics as a good example of a change resistant career, was that I thought the opportunities within programming, mechanics, sales, miniaturization, materials, batteries, solar, project management etc. were self-evident. In addition, automation stands a good chance of being the last industry to be automated.

Apparently these things weren't self evident, so let's be a little more specific:

I think robotics has the potential of becoming for this century what the auto industry has been for the last century.

At present there are a lot of stupid single-purpose robots everywhere - some are status symbols, some are not anymore. They are called cars, washing machines, dishwashers, vacuum cleaners etc. Soon, more general-purpose robots will take over more and more household chores, caretaking of sick and old, companionship, telepresence/socializing. I also think robots can become the new status symbol that so far has been reserved for cars.

They had that vision a little prematurely in Rocky IV (released in 1984), but now, 30 years on, there may be just ten years more before its realization. Aibos and copterdrones have been pointing firmly in that direction for at least half a decade now.

Okay, so I've understood I have to be much more concrete when guiding you. I do get it, you don't have the same experience as I do, or the overview and time to think about how certain technologies and human challenges combine to form tremendous career opportunities for you.

My bad.

I'm such a COK (meaning suffering from Curse Of Knowledge) for not being more clear and precise about these things. This post is meant to remedy that.

 

It's not just about robotics, but all the Big 5

The way I see it is this. If you want to be as future proof as possible, you should work in areas that are hard to automate (preferably the automation-enabling industries themselves) and that deal with the largest and most challenging issues the human race is facing:

"5" Challenges

  • Energy
  • Pollution
  • Global warming
  • Food
  • Water
  • Longevity/death
  • Depression (in the wake of automation, unemployment and abundance)

 

I think the best way to deal with the above big challenges is to be found in the following exponentially developing technologies:

"5" Technologies

  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Robotics
  • Nanotechnology
  • Biotechnology
  • Additive manufacturing

 

More specific areas where you could contribute are listed below. Remember that each one of the below are meant in the widest of senses. "Programming", e.g., means everything from actually coding, to designing user friendly apps or planning out whole systems, to marketing them. The same goes for VR (headset hardware, treadmills, software, games, simulation software...) or genetics (reading the code faster and cheaper, finding useful patterns/genes/diseases, visualization software, marketing) and so on.

Subcategories

  • Programming
  • Virtual and Augmented Reality, vision
  • Bionics (sense restoration and augmentation, X-ray vision, e.g.)
  • Artificial agents
  • Space exploration and mining
  • Artificial biology
  • Genetics
  • Stem cell research
  • Organ printing
  • Driverless vehicles
  • Neurology/brain interfaces
  • Multi-resistant bacteria/bacteriophages
  • Mechanics
  • Motors/actuators
  • Psychology/emotion sensing and manipulation
  • Surgery
  • Health care
  • Pandemics
  • Carbon capture
  • Desalination of sea water (source, clean, transport, finance...)
  • Fusion (chamber, materials, fuel, storage...)
  • Solar cells
  • Housing (prospect, plan, materials, energy, agri)
  • Migration (where to live, how to be integrated, educated)
  • Debt clean-up
  • Entertainment (incl. porn)
  • Psychology (dealing with migration or not fitting in the automated world of the future)
  • Energy storage (batteries)
  • Vertical farming
  • Insect farming
  • Algae farming
  • Ecological (insect fed) fish farming

Since those technologies themselves are in the vanguard, and driven by human creativity, they are the least likely to be automated anytime soon. Rather they are advanced by humans aided by tools provided by the previous technological generation in an ever accelerating cycle. That's where you want to be, whether it is in engineering, design, marketing, psychology etc.

I guess you need a list for that last part:

  • Engineering
  • Design
  • Marketing
  • Psychology
  • ...

 

What do we want? And how?

We want a time machine! When do we want it? It is irrelevant!

time machine
by Pixabay

Alright, sorry for that. My apologies.

What do we want? Well, you want money, I know that much, but why do you want it?

You want to buy food, clean water, a roof over your head, clothes, other stuff, healthcare, energy for running your tools. Well that and a Lamborghini, fancy food, champagne for your spray parties at Ocean Club, Marbella etc.

How are these things going to be produced? With the help of better and better tools provided by the big 5 technologies.

 

What's your part in it?

Well, what can you do? What are you interested in? Your education doesn't really matter, unless you want to become a medical doctor, a lawyer, a finance slave or work at a top tier management consultant. Most every other line of work lies wide open.

Just start tinkering, taking things apart, meeting people, interviewing them, reading stuff, connecting dots, studying online (here are 144 resources) and soon you'll be the expert, the having 'right' education or not. If you're driven and interested, you could fit 50 hours a week of your future-proofing, on top of the lowly bread winning activity you temporarily have to engage in. Remember how you could play all day long as a child, with no regard to remuneration for your efforts? That's how I feel about blogging and podcasting, and probably would about tinkering with robot hardware and software too.

After just one single year, your 2500 hours will have brought you close to expert level, in whatever you single out as your area. Imagine where you'd be in 5 (the length of a typical education) if you keep at it.

 

Speed things up with a little acid

I'm not you, and I can't go through the pros and cons associated with every conceivable job. However, think more in terms of satisfying yourself, than living either vicariously or conspicuously. Think more in terms of exploring and possibly leading for the experience in itself, rather than becoming a CEO or other kind of manager, just for the status and money.

 

Life is not about being a rock star, it's about rocking and rolling

 

...you still need the money however. Sure.

And you want to feel pride about your work, and not having to fear being axed all the time. Well then, back to the list of future-proof jobs, industries, challenges, their intersections with each other, with your interests and skills; and...

Perhaps, if it's legal where you are, try 50 ug of LSD to gain a fresh perspective on it all; your interests, your abilities, your aspirations. Reading this post again right before should set the stage nicely. Here is a great 15-minute video detailing the differences between the effects of LSD and psilocybin respectively.

N.B. I haven't. No, promise. Scout's honor. Whatthef..., read my lips: I. Haven't. Dropped. Acid. Or munched 'shrooms.

Ever.

LSD

 

Do it for the rainbow, not the gold

"But what about finance?"

Well, here's some food for thought: Finance wasn't cool or high-paying when Buffett or Marks or Dalio and other finance gurus entered the business.

They did it because they were fascinated by understanding business models and doing research. In short: they did it for fun, not money. They did it for the rainbow; there just happened to be a pot of gold at the end of it as well. If you focus too much on the gold, you'll miss the rainbow altogether.

Since they began in the business, we've experienced 40 years of falling interest rates and more and more (over-)banking, as well as rocketing valuations to the highest point in history (median MC/GAV, which unlike all other models is more than 90% correlated with subsequent decade long average returns).

That's why and how they got rich, including dozens of followers and wannabes riding the same spectacular wave of financial innovation and money debauchement. I think that trend is about to reverse, leading to much worse prospects for employment, careers and riches.

Thus, I think it's time to focus on real innovation and production (virtual reality counts as real) instead of the ephemeral Ponzi scheme that is finance.

Oh, and if you claim to have a 'burning interest' in finance, investing or management consulting, you shouldn't care about slaving away at Goldman or McKinsey. Or about being paid the big bucks by somebody else. Open your own shop, manage your own money, develop your own models in collaboration with like-minded people on social media.

 

Rock on!

This is the summary: Rock not rock star.

Fun, unique, human, entrepreneur, problem-solving; not an employed drone in a soon-to-be-automated mindless toil in whore village - at least not as more than a short gig to get started.

By the way, my wolfram just lit up: anything worth doing is future proof. Well, unless you really think driving a truck, ship, airplane and similar extremely automation-prone jobs are meaningful and fun if it weren't for the pay.

Now, sign up for my free newsletter, and share this article with a friend heading in the wrong direction.

Taggar (blogg): 
15 september 2015

Riding high on stocks? Aiming for high finance? Beware of the Dutch disease.

Long legged blondes

Dutch disease

White Sensation Parties

Dutch Disease White Sensation

Windmills

moulin rouge

Picturesque landscapes

Art

van gogh 1280px-Van_Gogh_-_Starry_Night_-_Google_Art_Project

-What's not to like about Holland?

Well, free drugs and (almost) free women are perhaps debatable, except to us ahimsas.

dutch disease stoned
After workout, September 15, 2015

 

What's not, is 'Dutch'. And, no, I'm not talking about the people or their guttural language, but about the Dutch disease.

This short (5-minute, tops) post is all about the risk of losing one's way and letting a windfall gain get the best of you.

 

The Dutch disease

"The Dutch disease" sounds better than it is. Trust me.

The old double-D is usually reserved for countries that get a windfall gain by striking oil, gold, diamonds or some other natural resource.

The discovery is supposed to be an unequivocal positive for the country, but most of the time, several dormant negatives are strengthened and actually make matters worse than before:

  • Politicians struggle for power over the the newfound wealth, breeding corruption and mismanagement.
  • The currency appreciates, strangling the export manufacturing sectors, while stimulating imports of (luxury) consumer goods.
  • The trickle down wealth erodes productivity and creates a nation of leisurely shoppers and welfare addicts.

Once the process has run its course, the country suffers from inflation, high cost level, unemployment, low productivity, low adaptability, corruption, poor governance etc. And its right then that the cause of the Dutch disease, the natural resource discovery, is exhausted, leaving the country much more worse off on all accounts than before.

You know, when you've been double-D:d

 

The ZIRP version of the Dutch disease

Zero interest rates work much the same way, just worse, in particular when the entire world plays the same ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) game simultaneously. After the interest rate cycle has run its course, what's left is a world of dysfunctional and disconnected speculators with zero useful skills, instead of educated, creative and productive people in a functional society.

The Greenspans, Bernankes, Yellens, Kurodas, Draghis and Carneys of the world, not to mention the Swedish "let's go negative" full retard interest rate champion, Ingves, "discovered" the natural resource of ZIRP and made sure the entire world contracted the Dutch disease.

In effect, they went to the streets and gave every junkie, every person with gambling debts, every irresponsible wacko they could shake a stick at, a wad of dough and said "There, I hope you've learned your lesson. And if you haven't, there's more where that came from"

 

Your own strain of the 2D

At an individual level, a bull market combined with zero interest rates might even have made you specifically contract the Dutch disease.

Check if you tick any of these boxes:

  • You think a quarter point interest rate rise would hurt your finances
  • You're not even considering rising interest rates; "Why would they raise if it's bad?"
  • Your mortgage is more than five times your annual disposable income
  • You've run up a sizable student loan or car loan without really gaining any useful skills
  • You actually don't have a reliable income, since you left your job to "invest on the stock market"
  • You aren't worried your real job skills are fading, since trading is going so well
  • Your only holdings are story stocks (no profits or no revenues, world domination plans, advertising dependent, story company clients only)

If just one or two of the statements above resonated with you, you should get checked for Dutch disease.

The risk is clear and present that you are financially fragile and couldn't cope with a normalization of the economy (including 6% policy rates, 50% lower stock prices, and a decimation of finance related jobs and the professional support services that go with them), let alone an undershoot with even higher interest rates, costs (inflation) and lower stock prices and reduced dividends.

Oh, and then there is the creeping issue of automation that will kill off office workers, taxi and truck drivers and many other blue and white collar employees, outside the world of finance.

Feeling worried yet? Butterflies in your stomach?

 

Freakonomics

Here's a tip for you:

Check out the Freakonomics podcast from October 16, 2014. It's called "How Can Tiny Norway Afford To Buy So Many Teslas".

It tells you how Norway finally cured itself from the Dutch disease, on the third time round of windfall oil gains. Now the Tesla is the most sold car model in Norway, and with only 5 million inhabitants, Norway is Tesla's largest market outside the U.S.

Before that, they fucked up twice when oil prices increased (Norway found oil in 1969, and temporarily prospered during periods of rising oil prices before sinking back with a case of DD).

 

Don't be that guy with the Dutch disease (Summary and conclusions) 

I'm sure you've heard several stories about people winning the lottery, only to be broke a few years later, with high debts, no job, no skills and no friends.

Don't be that guy.

Low interest rates, surging stocks, increasing house prices etc. are like winning the lottery, like so many sirens of the sea luring you into stagnation and apathy.

Not even I am safe, despite my wealth, perhaps because of it... Remember, it's not paranoia if they're really after you.

Instead, make yourself change resistant and future proof:

  • Keep your skills updated, study online, use the abundance of free resources, such as Stanford, MIT, Khan, Codecademy, etc. Here is a list of 144 sites for that!
  • Keep your contacts up to date. Meet IRL, have fun, discuss what you would do if your income dried up, keep networking on LinkedIn
  • Keep your investments diversified
  • Check your spending while you can, instead of waiting until you have to (the latter will be much worse). Is that car really that fun or are you just trying to impress somebody?
  • If you're still in school, think about which industries might be most resilient to automation and de-financation
    • Hint: It wont be stock brokering, stock research, portfolio management or algorithmic and HFT trading
    • It won't be car or truck manufacturing either.
    • As discussed before, however, it might be psychology, design, marketing, programming, and as always, various forms of healthcare (unless your government has already ruined that market).
so you want to work in finance retarded hedge fund manager
Tell me more how you plan to buy happiness with your stock winnings

Yes, that's right, even when things are going your way, interest rates are low, jobs, dividends and profits come easy, you'd better Always Be Investing. Most of all, make sure life's journey is enjoyable and not dependent on becoming or staying 'rich'.

If this article resonated with you. If you liked it, if you want more... Why not leave your e-mail address with me, i.e., subscribe, and I'll send you my free eBook on finance, and weekly updates in my newsletters?

And, please, feel free to share this article or my site with anyone.

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